1.4. The similar stages of the development and the stages of the realization of the law of transition a system structure from macro- to microlevel pass BI- and POLY - system. For each of them it is possible to construct  the same table. However we consider, that for the simplification of the work it is expedient to reflect it by introduction  one or two columns (5,6) on the right, describing the law of transition from mono-system to BI- POLY-systems. We have arranged in cells the conditional designations offered by Yu. Salamatov – for the presentation of a training [2]. Such of the diagram in the table allows simultaneously to analyze mono-system and to see the further development in quality BI- and POLY- systems.

2.0. Rule of filling of the table

At use of the table for training it is necessary to use only cards - visual circuits of the inventions (see item 3.3). At use of the table for the analysis and forecasting of a system evolution by the qualified TRIZ-users:

2.1. For filling the table on the certain technical system all sources, accessible to the user, of the patent and scientific and technical information are used. The numbered bibliographic list is made. For an example we use the results of the analysis of a technical system "Bob of toy". (№ 14) – patent USSR № 676290, 1979г.

2.2. In each technical decision its conformity to parameters specified on axes of the table comes to light. Is determined, to what Altshuller’s Inventive Principles it concerns. In one inventions some Principles are used, in others - it is impossible to allocate any Principles. The conditional designation of the given invention is registered: a serial number of the document from the list, the year and the numbers of the used Inventive Principles. The indication of the year of the invention and the number of Principles will allow us at once to see the dynamics of the development of a system and the Inventive Principles, characteristic for the system. An example: (№14) on a vertical: a stage 1 - creation of system; on a horizontal - firm substance, fine particles + gravitational field; Altshuller’s Inventive Principles - №1 Segmentation. Conventional sings: 14/1979 (1)

2.3. A conventional sign of each invention we write down at a crossing of the appropriate line (a stage of thedevelopment and a subsystem) and a column (substance or field, BI- POLY-system). The example is shown on tab.2.

3.0. Technique of use of the table at training.

3.1. The training to the laws of technical system evolution and forecasting will be carried out after the training to Inventive Principles (on examples of "Bob of toy") [7]. We recommend to make the table by the size 841х594 mm. The schemes of the inventions (educational fund on a "Bob of toy") should be executed on separate white cards by the size 65х55 mm. The schemes of the toys "Bob of toy", created by the students, everyone carries out on cards of the colour.

3.2. After an explanation by the teacher  the laws and the stages of the development the students should spread out all the cards on the table. The discussion about every invention is made as a group discussion. They respond on the questions: to what stage of the development of a system does the invention concern? At what stage of the development  is a substance - field? Does the invention concern to mono-, bi- or polysystem? The students argue, repeatedly read on the table, see and hear the formulations of the laws,  the lines of the development, put forward the arguments, that promotes active mastering of an educational material. After the group has agreed - in what place of the table it is necessary to put the scheme of the invention, the recording about a conventional sings (see item 2.2.) is made on the back cards.

3.3. When the table is filled with the schemes of the inventions, "the colour lines” of the inventions of each student  and "a white stain” are visible on it. The students put forward hypotheses concerning the further evolution of the system and fill in   "a white stain" on the table by the schemes of the new decisions. 

3.4. Having turned on the return party of a card of the inventions, we receive the information about the most frequently used Altshuller’s Inventive Principles at each stage of the development of a system. The students reveal to what subsystems the basic contradictions concern, put forward hypotheses concerning their sanction.

3.5. On the table the connection of the basic concepts of TRIZ -the contradiction, Altshuller’s Inventive Principles,the laws of evolution,the forecasting of the development - are evidently visible.

3.6. The table allows to show the various versions of the laws and the lines of the development of systems  by G. Altshuller, B. Zlotin, Yu. Salamatov, V. Petrov. For this purpose the students receive the formulations of these authors, and in a group discussion discuss - how  is it possible to show the given direction of development on the table.

4.0. Diagnostics of a stage of the development of technical system

Having filled the table by all known inventions (cards or conventional signs), it is possible to make an evident conclusion about a stage of the development of a system and it’s separate subsystems. Look, in what cells  are the  recordings about the inventions. At what stages  is a majority of the inventions? Whether there are inventions leaving "for limits " of the basic area of a concentration of the inventions?

We can observe visually the law of Irregular evolution of system parts.. The interest is represented also with the information on what Altshuller’s Inventive Principles were used most frequently. It allows to reveal the basic technical and physical contradictions of the given system.

5.0. Forecasting the further development of technical system

The table shows possible directions of development of any system, because beforehand contains the superfluous information - the lines of the development of substance and field. In any concrete system some scripts of the development can be realized, but all of them "are visible" in the table. For the analysis of the development of subsystems we put in the table another column –where the names of the basic subsystems of technical system are located [2, 7]. Then in each cell of the table the information in addition "is distributed" by subsystems. The forecasting can be carried out on several directions:

5.1. For a concrete subsystem. The stage of development, on which higher there is no information about the inventions comes to bring out. It is a stage of possible future development. The stage, on which there are even some inventions comes to bring out. At this stage the development will go in the near future. The stage on which the majority of the inventions concerning given subsystem is concentrated comes to bring out. At this stage the development goes now. How long will it be proceed and how? Look how this stage of development is filled by the inventions. Whether there is an opportunity to move "lengthways" of horizontal axis, changing substance, field under those "helps", typical lines, which are specified on an axis? These  are possible directions for the development at present. What basic Altshuller’s Inventive Principles are used at different stages? Whether the contradictions change at these stages and how?

Such forecast will be carried out for all separate parts of the system - the energy source and the converter, the engine, the transmission, the working unit  and the control unit.

5.2. For the system as a whole. After the analysis of concrete subsystems the basic contradictions inherent to parts of a system and a system as a whole come to bring out. Whether it is possible to reveal the conducting contradiction, which sanction will allow to transfer a system to more high level of the development? Whether there are parts of a system, which sharply lag behind in the development?

The consideration of the laws of evolution of all parts of a system allows to coordinate possible and necessary changes in a system and it’s subsystems.

5.3. Analysis of "white stains". "White stains” are of a special interest represent. These are empty crates in the table, i.e. such, in which any invention after the carried out analysis of the information is not given. In this case:

5.3.1. It is possible to assume the unable or the inefficiency of the technical decisions, which are based on such set of attributes;

5.3.2. It is possible to predict the occurrence of a new direction of the technical decisions. The use of the table with "white stains" allows to overcome psychological inertia and unsystematic selection of variants of the developer's decisions. The laws of  TRIZ with the help of empty crates on the table evidently show a possible direction of the development of the system.

6.0. Example of the express forecast of technical system "Bob of toy"

6.1. The diagnostic. The greatest quantity of the inventions concerns to 4 stage of the development – Increase the degree of system dynamics (see tab.1). Some inventions concern to 1 stage and bring in to the structure of a toy new subsystems (№ 48,66,14,47,15,16,17). At 2 stage the connections with existing subsystems (№ 1,2,13,29,30,44,45,40,70,55,57,59) are established. The development inside stages occurs under the law of transition a system structure from macro- to microlevel - the floppy elements and hinges, fine particles (№ 14,47,40,70,15,61,71) are actively used, use of liquids (№ 25,26) began. The law of increase of a degree sufield - is used, use of electrical and magnetic fields (№ 34,65,53,23,34,24,25,51) also began. Especially we shall note the realized use of a gravitational field (№ 15,16,17,70,67). "Bob of toy", which concerned at the law of transition from mono-system to BI-POLY-systems (№ 27,28,46,50,62,69,10,42) have appeared. There are some inventions, which outstrip the basic level of development of system and concern to 5 (№ 16,31,71) and 6 (№ 60) stages.

6.2. The forecast.  There are no inventions with use of layered, fibrous, matrix and capillaries-porous materials ("a white stain"). It is possible to expect the occurrence of toys with gaseform parts. Also it is visible, that the inventors have bypassed by the attention the other fields - acoustic, thermal, chemical and their combinations. Those fields which are used – are not controlled. The physical, chemical and geometrical effects are not used almost. A huge field for the possible decisions is an active transition to polysystems. The expansion of quantity of Inventive Principles, used by the inventors is possible. By the results of the forecast the author received the patent for the invention [8].

7.0. Opportunity of use  known techniques of forecasting on the base of TRIZ

 and offered table

B. Zlotin, A. Zusmann [3] and V. Petrov [4] describe the algorithms for forecasting the development of a system on the base of TRIZ. They offer to study a history of a system, to build structural, functional etc. tables, model, line of the development of subsystems. 

Our table allows evidently to combine in itself the results of the historical analysis, structural model, to look after the lines of the development of subsystems and to see the directions of the further perfection of a system. Therefore it can be used in any of known techniques of forecasting.

Besides the authors mark the special requirement to a high qualification of the persons conducting the forecast. On our sight, the table allows to carry out a training not only  to the laws of technical system evolution, but also to the known procedures of forecasting.

The conclusion

The given table can be used for training the students of schools of TRIZ to the laws of technical system evolution, Altshuller’s Inventive Principles, the forecasting of the development of systems. The table can be used in the work by the engineers - designers, inventors. The material on the development of any technical system, submitted in the evident form, gives a lot of information for reflections and improvement.

References

1.  Altshuller,G., Zlotin, B., Zusman, A., Philatov, V., (1989) ‘Search For New   Ideas: From Insight to Technology. A Practice of inventive Problem Solving’,  Karte Molavenjaske; Kishinev, USSR. ISBN 5362001477

2.  Salamatov, Yu., (1991) "A System of Laws of Technology Evolution”, Karelia; Petrozavodsk, USSR. ISBN 5754503377

3.  Zlotin, B., Zusman, A (1989) ‘Laws of Evolution and forecasting a Technical Systems’, Karte Molavenjaske; Kishinev, USSR.

4.        Petrov, V., (2002) ‘Laws of System Evolution”, Manuscript; Tel-Aviv, Israel.

5.        Aleksandrov, L., Blinnikov, V., Karpova, N., (1990) "Matrix in innovative creativity”, VNIIPI;

Moskow, USSR.

6.        Kozyreva, N., (2001) "The table for diagnostic of development of a technical system", 2001

Scientific - practical conference "Creativity in a name of worthy life", July 11-12, Velikiy Novgorod, Russia.

7.        Kozyreva, N., (2001) A technique of training to methods of solving the contradictions on an